Can the Warriors get healthy just in time again? Preseason predicted standings for the NBAs 2022-23 Western Conference, according to FiveThirtyEights RAPTOR-based forecast. If not, well, the floor might be bottomless. In the meantime, lets take a look at how we see the standings shaking out in each conference. The FiveThirtyEight projections are significantly less favorable to Golden State than those released by oddsmakers this week, who have the Warriors as the betting favorite to win the championship. Luke Kennard adds elite shooting to the mix, and Memphis slew of young and willing defenders provide balance. All boast championship odds between 5 and 7 percent and are projected for between 49 and 51 wins with point differentials between plus-3.0 and plus-3.8 per game. For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight also predicted that the Warriors would miss the playoffs altogether back in October. Steph missed the last 12 games of the regular season last year before leading a Finals run. Finally, we have to talk about the race for the bottom of the standings in both conferences, which is sure to be impacted by the Tank-O-Rama for Victor Wembanyama. ), Values and rankings in key statistical categories for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors during the 2021-22 NBA regular season. They'll need a healthy Porzingis down the stretch. How does Derrick Rose look after returning from ankle surgery? As of Feb. 26, the Lakers have a 40 percent chance of making the 2023 NBA Playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight's projections . They also brought in Russell Westbrook after Utah bought him out. Some of that is because projection systems tend to bake in regression for teams that show as much year-to-year improvement as Cleveland did last season, and some of it is due to a shockingly low projection for Evan Mobley, whom RAPTOR pegs as a net-neutral this season. From a mall parking lot altercation to a fight with a teenager during a pickup game, these are the allegations Ja Morant is facing. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +5000 Nate McMillan was dismissed in Atlanta on Feb. 21 and replaced by former Jazz coach Quin Snyder. Caesars title odds: +1100 Naturally, those acquisitions created a torrent of new betting action in Dallas and Phoenix, reshaping the balance of power in the West. @JADubin5, NBA (1144 posts) If youre hunting for long shots, theres plenty of interesting shuffling happening in the middle of the table. Were still early enough in the season for some solid value picks. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The Bulls did not make a move at the trade deadline because of their belief in the team when it's at full strength. It has been a rough ride for coach Tom Thibodeau's team this season. What Are The Most Vulnerable Senate Seats In 2024? Is that real, or will things start to backslide? They got even deeper at the deadline acquiring stretch big Mike Muscala from the Oklahoma City Thunder. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. If those players stay healthy, the Raptors have a chance to be a threat. Denver has four players averaging 15 or more points per game this season. Here is how FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR currently has the NBA's playoff seeds unfolding (title odds via Fanduel in parentheses):. A few weeks before the playoffs begin, it could also be Milwaukee's first chance to see Philadelphia with Harden in the lineup. If he's healthy, Porzingis will certainly be motivated facing his old team. While John Collins' recent foot injury that kept him out of the final three games of the break is something to monitor, the Hawks have shown they are capable of going on winning streaks under coach Nate McMillan both last season and this one. Dallas desperately needed a move like this, too. The addition of Irving has given Dallas an elite second-scoring option behind Luka Doncic. If LaMelo Ball continues to play at his All-Star level (20.0 points, 7.5 assists and 7.1 rebounds) and the team gets Harrell going, they could make their push sooner rather than later. When we last saw them Giannis Antetokounmpo was going back and forth with Philly's Embiid in the last game before the All-Star break. It is not a political statement, just the reality of how the NBA sends out schedules to its teams in the offseason, with home games in blue, road games in red. 1' to Dubs beating Mavs. Draymond Green had a recent injury scare but should be returning to the lineup. While NBA coaches tend to . Suddenly, the 76ers went from being down an All-Star and wondering how they would replace him, to reuniting Harden with Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey, forming arguably the league's toughest 1-2 scoring punch with Embiid. You can view updated NBA championship odds and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook. FiveThirtyEights 2022 NBA Finals prediction has Golden State with just a seven percent chance to win it all. ET, ESPN): Several members of the Bulls organization were furious at the flagrant foul from Grayson Allen that resulted in Alex Caruso's fractured wrist the last time these two teams met. The NBA's Eastern Conference is deeper than it has been in decades, setting up what should be a wild sprint to the playoffs over the final seven weeks of the 2021-22 NBA regular season. But in the modern era of basketball, deadline trades are much more effective in acquiring talent for future championship runs than they are in setting up short-term, immediate success. ET, ESPN): Will the Knicks still be in the play-in picture? Playoff and title projections: They've lost nine of their last 10 games since, including the two prior to the All-Star break in overtime and double overtime. UPDATED Jun. Theyre back up to fifth in the championship odds table at +1100, behind only the Celtics, Suns, Bucks and Nuggets. They introduced James Harden, lost big at home to the Celtics, then picked up a huge road win in Milwaukee to head into the break on a high note -- led by the latest dominant performance from Joel Embiid in a season full of them. Now, we know that the NBA has arguably the least meaningful regular season in all of professional sports, so perhaps those stats should count for relatively little when comparing the two teams. *Measured by the points per game differential this teams opponents would have against an average team, based on Elo ratings and adjusted for home-court advantage. Lets see what looks good. The All-Star break is over and its time to look ahead to the stretch run of the NBA season. With Butler leading the way, and Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and P.J. The result is a Clippers team deep with effective role players that should be very dangerous in the Western Conference. Suddenly, the season has been infused with a massive burst of energy and excitement. Playoff and title projections: Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +1500 Read more . On top of that, Durant and Irving should both be on the floor to square off against Harden and Embiid. Once youve made your decision on which team you think has the chops to win the 2022-23NBA championship, youre ready to go. More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team, How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. About six percent of bettors at BetMGM favor Dallas to win the West. The Bucks came into the break as the Easts hottest team and have kept it going, extending their win streak to 15. Denvers regular-season resume has been good so far. Brooklyn Nets (+260) 2. Although Boston dropped its final game before the All-Star break, it's been a banner few weeks for the franchise, which has won 11 of its last 13 games and outscored teams by more than 250 points during that span. But the market is bullish on a Lakers team that appears to be more rounded out, with the Lakers ascending up the table from +5000 at the end of January to +2800 immediately after the deadline moves. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. He has played four games for his new team so far, but if he can help take some of the playmaking and scoring burden off of All-Star guard Darius Garland, Cleveland could have a chance to go from pleasant surprise to making noise in the postseason. Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice, Neil Paine and Holly Fuong. But bettors may not mind the coaching shuffle. As a franchise, the Nuggets have a history of choking in the playoffs. Pivot point for the rest of the season: The Celtics have looked like one of the NBA's absolute elite teams for close to a month. Phoenix which made the NBA Finals just two seasons ago without Durant has been the more popular betting target of the two. But its now clear Sacramentos lofty position in the West is not a magic trick. The New York Knicks are also moving up the table, though the numbers are still pretty long. Still, this +650 value will shrink (it was +800 a few weeks ago) if Denver continues to look like an elite squad. FiveThirtyEight's model has Boston's chances of winning the NBA Finals at a whopping 80 percent, nearly 36 percent better than the odds suggest. This seems to be the approach taken by most Eastern Conference contenders. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +50000 They also brought in Russell Westbrook after Utah bought him out. So yes, a pretty good case exists that splashy deadline trades often arent the best way to win a championship. FiveThirtyEight: Suns have a 56% chance to beat Hornets The site gives Charlotte a 44% shot at defeating Phoenix in the NBA game on Wednesday night. The Nuggets have the reigning two-time MVP and the best record in the West yet find themselves with the fourth-best odds. Similarly, the Warriors have home-court advantage for the Finals by virtue of their superior record (despite being a lower seed within their own conference). With five teams within 2.5 games of first place in the conference, and just six games separating sixth through 11th place, teams will be swapping spots in the standings on a nightly basis. The number is much shorter now (+1400) but still long enough to warrant a value bet. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesnt account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each players future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. The West is very bunched up. This NBA season is wide open, but only a select handful of teams can actually win the title. A blockbuster NBA Trade Deadline delivered a dump truck of showstopping news, dramatically realigning team rosters and superstar affiliations. Khris Middleton is back, too, furthering the squads championship chances. In are Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland, Mason Plumlee, and Russell Westbrook. They lost both Lonzo Ball and Caruso to extended injuries during a one-week span, but both players along with second-year forward Patrick Williams, who hasn't played since October, are eyeing returns in mid-March. Steph Curry has only played in 38 games and is currently out of the lineup with multiple leg injuries. If you were to lay down $100, youd see a payout of $650 you get your $100 back, plus your earnings of $550. It freed up minutes on the wing and gave the Hawks a pick to potentially use down the road to continue to build the roster. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Perhaps the most interesting move is the Atlanta Hawks, who have moved closer to the top of the table despite firing their coach this month. Giannis Antetokounmpo is nursing a right wrist injury, but Milwaukee reportedly dodged a bullet with the severity of that injury. Teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Clippers will be in the mix again and you cant sleep on the defending champions Golden State Warriors or young and hungry Memphis Grizzlies. Los Angeles Lakers (95) A . Against a reeling Knicks squad, he could be on pace for an encore. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. Quality is determined by the harmonic mean of the teams Elo ratings; importance measures how much the result will alter playoff projections; the overall number is the average of the quality and importance values. The Warriors feel like a sleeping giant which is probably why DK is giving them the eighth-best title odds despite Golden State being the current seventh seed. Maybe the conventional wisdom is just stuck in the mid-to-late-2010s Warriors dynasty era. Thats a dangerous upgrade for a team that made last years Western Conference Finals. The U!). Sacramento has been on a slow rise throughout the season, with the Kings now available in the championship market at 100-to-1. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesnt account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each players future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. If you are having difficulty accessing any content on this website, please visit our Accessibility page. Before the Irving trade, sportsbooks had Dallas anywhere from +2500 to +3300 to win the NBA title. Eastern Conference. At 100-to-1 still early enough in the playoffs Easts hottest team and have it! 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